Rainfall to be generally higher than normal, IGEBU forecasts

“Seasonal rainfall in September, October, November and December 2018 will be above normal climatic conditions in a larger part of Burundi,” said Augustin Ngenzirabona, Hydrometeorology and Agglomeration Director at the Geographical Institute of Burundi (IGEBU) on September 13.

Meteorological station in Nyabiraba

Meteorological station in Nyabiraba

According to weather forecasts, the western, north-western and central parts of the country will have an above normal rainfall. “The top of the above-normal rains will be reached in November,” Ngenzirabona said.

However, the north-eastern part of the country will receive normal precipitation with an excess tendency while the south-eastern part will have normal rainfall with a deficit trend.

Mr Ngenzirabona explains that the actual beginning of the rainy season varies by region. It is expected during the 3rd ten-day period of September in Mugamba, Buyenzi and Bugesera regions while it will begin in the 1st ten-day period of October in Kirimiro, Imbo and Bweru regions.
He says Bututsi, Buragane and Kumoso regions will experience a slight delay in the start of the rainy season which is expected in the 2nd period of ten days of October.

The end of the rainy season is expected in the 2nd ten- day period of December 2018 in Buyenzi, Bugesera, Mugamba, Kirimiro, Buragane and Bututsi regions while the rainy season should continue until the end of December 2018 in other regions of Imbo, Kumoso and Bweru.

In August 2018, Nairobi hosted the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum to share their research findings and agreed on weather forecasting for September, October, November and December 2018 rainy season. Experts have found that this region is likely to experience rainfall generally above the climatological norm. They also noticed that the El Niño phenomenon is developing at a probability of 65%.

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